This ain't a scene, it's an AGI arms race

Or, at what point do I get a robot butler?

Image by Leonardo.ai

Right now, in unmarked buildings across Silicon Valley, the most powerful companies in history are racing to birth a new form of intelligence. They're spending billions, consuming massive amounts of electricity, and generating more heat than any previous human endeavour—all to answer one question: Can we create something smarter than ourselves?

The stakes couldn't be higher. OpenAI's Sam Altman predicts we'll achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) within five to ten years. Anthropic believes it could reshape biology, economics, and human health by 2026. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs projects AGI could boost the US GDP by billions, while PwC forecasts a $15.7 trillion impact on the global economy by 2030.

What makes AGI different?

AGI represents a quantum leap beyond today's AI systems. While current AI can play chess and generate images, AGI would match or exceed human intelligence across virtually any cognitive task. Think of it as the difference between a calculator (narrow AI) and a human brain (AGI). One is specialized, the other is adaptable to almost any mental challenge.

OpenAI's bold bet

Sam Altman is betting his company on AGI. OpenAI is burning through cash at an unprecedented rate, potentially losing $5 billion this year alone. Why such aggressive spending? Altman believes we're on the cusp of an "Intelligence Age" where personal AI teams will serve as on-demand experts for everything from medical diagnoses to scientific breakthroughs.

Anthropic's careful approach

Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei shares the optimism but advocates for a more measured approach. His vision suggests "powerful AI" (his term for AGI) could emerge as early as 2026. But Anthropic emphasizes responsible development and risk mitigation alongside progress.

Real world changes

If AGI arrives in the next decade, here’s what the experts say we can expect:

The economy

• PwC says AGI could pump $15.7 trillion into the global economy by 2030

• Automation of 25% of labour tasks in advanced economies

• Creation of entirely new industries and job categories

• But we’ll all need to learn new job skills

Science

• AGI could crack the code on diseases like cancer, anxiety, and PTSD

• AGI could solve climate change (fingers crossed!)

• Advances in space exploration and quantum computing

Societal changes

We're still not getting robot butlers anytime soon. I know, I'm disappointed too. The real changes will be more like:

• Potential job displacement requiring massive reskilling efforts

• Widening gaps between developed and emerging economies

• Complex ethical and safety concerns

What this means for you

Whether AGI shows up in 5 or 15 years, things are going to change. To be ready for these changes, expert suggest that you stay informed (you're already reading this blog, good job!) and play around with AI and learn some new skills (follow-up blog to come).

Biweekly disruptions

ChatGPT’s advanced voice mode just came to PCs and Macs (Digitaltrends) ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice Mode (AVM) allows PC and Mac users to have real-time, voice-driven conversations without text prompts. Running on the GPT-4o model, AVM responds naturally, senses emotions, and even lets users interrupt mid-sentence for a truly interactive experience. The feature, initially a beta exclusive, is now available to Plus subscribers, inspiring similar features from Meta and Google.

OpenAI Folds A.I.-Powered Search Engine Into ChatGPT (New York Times) OpenAI has launched "ChatGPT search," integrating real-time internet access into its popular chatbot. ChatGPT Plus users can now get up-to-the-minute information on everything from news to stock prices, and soon, free users will too. This new capability comes amid partnerships with major news outlets and a wave of interest in AI-driven search, though concerns about accuracy and ongoing copyright disputes remain.

Google Maps adds AI features to help users explore and navigate the world around them (Globe and Mail) Google Maps is introducing AI-powered features. With its Gemini technology, users can chat with the app to get personalized recommendations on nearby hotspots, check real-time parking options, and follow precise lane guidance. And Google Maps is opening up its language models for developers to answer location-specific questions, showcasing Google’s growing AI ambition.